Here are the stocks we recommended for Q3 – Portfolio - DECK, FOSL, JAKK, MAT, NKE, RL, TSLA
Q4 – Portfolio – DECK, JAKK, MAT, NKE, RL, TSLA,UA
Deckers Outdoor Corp. (Nasdaq:
DECK)
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) designs, produces and markets high-quality footwear and accessories for men, women and children in the U.S., Europe, Asia, Canada and Latin America. DECK's five brands are UGG Australia, Teva, Simple, TSUBO and Ahnu.
The company reported a net income of $62.48 million, or $1.59 per diluted share, for the third quarter ended September 30, 2011, compared to $42.14 million, or $1.07 per diluted share, for the same quarter ended September 30, 2010. The company expects diluted earnings per share to increase approximately 33% over 2010 levels for the fourth quarter of 2011. Following strong Q3 numbers, the stock price jumped to a new 52 week high.
Moreover, I see new wholesale distribution in Europe, the company's ongoing efforts to extend the seasonality of the Teva brand, an enhanced UGG brand men's offering, and retail expansion supporting strong results this fall and into 2012. As a result, I think that for 2012, the company's earnings growth will beat the industry's growth.
Yesterday, the stock lost $0.44, or 0.44 percent, to close at $99.97. However, in the last three months, the stock gained $19.47 or 24.19 percent. The stock's current range of $98-$101.39, compares to 52 week range of $67.01-$118.9.
Based on log-normal random walk, within the next one month there is 95 percent chance that the stock price could be between $81.53 and $135.58. This implies a profit to loss ratio of 1.9 to 1.
JAKKS Pacific Inc. (Nasdaq:
JAKK)
JAKK is a multi-line, multi-brand toy company that designs, produces, markets and distributes toys and related products, writing instruments and related products, pet toys, consumables and related products, electronics and related products, kids indoor and outdoor furniture, and other consumer products. It also develops products marketed under its own trademarks and brand names.
In the Q3 update, we said that the company was in the midst of evaluating Oaktree Capital Management's $20 per share cash buyout offer. In October, Stephen G. Berman, Chief Executive Officer, President, Secretary and Director of the company, wrote an open letter saying that $20 per share cash buyout offer was inadequate. Mr. Berman said that the Board unanimously believed that this is not the right time to sell the company, and that execution of the company's strategic plan including potentially transformative projects planned and already underway will provide significantly greater value to the company's stockholders. To a large extent I agree with the Board's assessment and so we should stick with this stock.
Yesterday, the stock remained unchanged at $18.75. In the last three months, the stock gained $2.75 or 17.19 percent. The stock's current range of $18.52-$18.91, compares to 52 week range of $14.01-$21.2.
Based on log-normal random walk, within the next one month there is 95 percent chance that the stock price could be between $15.59 and $23.46. This implies a profit to loss ratio of 1.5 to 1.
Mattel Inc. (Nasdaq:
MAT)
Mattel, Inc. is the world's largest traditional toy company.