Rarely have Americans faced a more challenging investment landscape.
Bonds yield next to nothing. Money markets pay literally nothing. Residential real estate is swamped in a flood of short sales and foreclosures. Gold – after climbing six-fold over the last 12 years – may have topped out. And stocks are gyrating madly.
Q: Rick, the typical investor is disgusted with the yields on bonds and cash and scared to death of the stock market. What are you saying to clients?
A: I'm telling them that now is an excellent time to take a portion of their portfolio and diversify into alternative assets: convertible bonds, preferred shares, foreign currencies, hedge positions, ultra-cheap commodities and so on.
Q: Okay, let's take these one at a time. What are you buying now and why?
A: We recently launched a managed account for individual investors that we call The Global Hedge Portfolio. The idea is not to replace your traditional stock and bond portfolio, but to offer a complement to it. We're seeking profits in investments that don't move in lockstep with either the S&P 500 or Lehman's Treasury Index.
Q: Give me a couple of "for-instances."
A: Take the situation in the Eurozone, for example. We see European leaders and the European Central bank doing a whole lot of talking, but we don't see genuine, concrete steps toward solving the huge fiscal problems in Southern Europe. Some might even argue that the reason they haven't yet taken serious corrective steps is because their options are so limited. Italy, for example, is simply too big an economy to bail out, in my view. My co-strategist Greg Galloway and I forecast that the euro will fall to parity with the dollar within 12 months. So we are short the euro in our Global Hedge Portfolio.
Q: Can't fault your thinking there. I've been saying much the same thing for months now. What else are you doing?
A: We're investing in overlooked asset classes with plenty of upside potential. Take timber, for example. Over the long run, investments in timber have beaten stocks by about 4% annually – and with considerably less volatility.