After 22 trading days so far this year the S&P 500 is up 6.94%. Anyone may have a bullish outlook or bearish one but right here right now the market is rallying and seems like it has a good head of steam behind it.
About two months ago I
posted about my belief that we could be in for a range busting rally. At 1344 the SPX is not there yet but is getting closer--to be clear I am thinking big rally that goes quite a bit higher but does not last. For now this theory is not yet wrong, it is too soon to say correct.
There are two points to this post. One is to clients that if big rally that then fails turns out to be correct then people will start to feel better and better about the market and their portfolios which might make it emotionally difficult if we do some selling at SPX 1500.
The other point is for readers who actively manage their portfolios. Chances are most active managers (including do it yourselfers) always have an opinion on the current state of the market and what might be coming next. The front end analysis in this equation is only part of the work. The back end execution, when you're right, and the ability recognize and adapt when you are wrong is probably more important.
Anyone who is even mediocre, which can absolutely be enough to get the job done successfully, will get some big calls correct.